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Evaluating New
Technologies for Energy
Transition

International Energy Agency
(IEA) has developed different
9
methods and tools to assess the
various technologies’ effectiveness
for an energy transition based on
scenario analysis. The Sustainable
Development Scenario (SDS) targets
rise in global temperature of 1.8°C
in 2070 with a probability of CO
2
emission reaching net-zero as
66%. Negative CO emissions after
2
2070 would enable reaching the
target of restricting temperature
rise target of 1.5°C by 2100. Such
negative emissions have also been
studied in 88 scenarios by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Fig. 11: Technology readiness for CO emission reduction 9
2
Change (IPCC).

The Energy Technology Perspectives
Model 2020 (ETP 2020) by IEA
uses a combination of scenario
techniques to evaluate the energy
sector’s performance in the long
term. The technologies that have
been studied and developed have
advanced to extensive prototype
testing with known performance
and cost parameters. The ETP model
has four parts covering energy
conversion, industry, transport
and buildings. Using this model,
outcomes can be studied for use
cases of construction, industry,
and transport against variations in
energy supply.

In the SDS, electrification of transport,
industry and building sectors would
reduce emissions in 2070 by 40%.
Adopting hydrogen, bioenergy and
synthetic fuels derived from hydrogen
would result in further 20% reduction
and deploying carbon capture
utilisation and storage (CCUS) systems
can contribute 15%. Innovation in
new and existing technologies can
bring about the implementation of
these strategies for decarbonisation.
The technology readiness is shown in
Figures 11 and 12. Fig. 12: Maturity of Technology for Energy Transition 9
9 Making the transition to clean energy – Energy Technology
Perspectives 2020 – Analysis - IEA

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