Page 6 - Tcexpression2021 - Sept to Dec 2020
P. 6

Amongst the conventional carbon-based fuels coal      The global megatrends indicate wind and photovoltaic
        demand peaked in 2014 and is declining by 40% from    together will meet more than half of the world’s
        2019 to 2050; oil demand is expected to peak in 2029   electricity demand by 2050. All countries would also
        and gas demand in 2037, as shown in Figure 5.         substantially increase the proportion of renewable
                                                              energy in their total energy use by 2050. Renewables
                                                              and batteries would form 80% of the market in new

                                                              power capacity. It is expected that oil demand would
                                                              continue to increase until 2035 and gradually decrease
                                                              until 2050 to match and stabilise the current levels.
                                                              Hydrogen economy would start gaining market share
                                                              slowly from 2030 onwards.

                                                              The Energy Transition Path

             Fig. 5: Demand for Fossil fuels and peaking of demand     There are three pillars to energy transition – generation,
                                                              storage and efficiency; the related technologies
        The New Energy Scenario                               converge to provide an integrated solution. The road to
                                                              achieving climate change goals on the energy transition
        Figure 6 shows the current mix of the global energy   pathway essentially adopts the following tracks :
        system and the contribution to CO2 emission from
        each sector. Fossil fuels dominate the energy system,       Electrification of transport – 15% of CO emissions
        and these are also a significant contributor to carbon   each year are from vehicle exhausts, and a
        emissions.                                               reduction will require a widespread shift to electric

                                                                  Electrification of buildings – 7% CO emissions come
                                                                   from cooking and heating in buildings and 20%
                                                                 from space and water heating, as shown in Figure 7.

                                                              Share of final      -2           -2
                                                              energy                                      20
                                                              consumption for     20
                                                              space and water                 36
                                                              heating, %

                                                                  Hydrogen and    78
                                                                  other renewables

                                                                  Electricity and
                                                                  district heating                        32
            Fig. 6: Overview of Global Energy Mix and CO  emissions
                                                                  Fossil fuels and
        The International Energy Agency Assessment indicates      bioenergy 1   2016        2030         2050
        that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in                      Fig. 7: Energy for Buildings   6
        2020, energy-related CO  emissions by 7%, and energy
        investment by 18%. The impacts vary by fuel. The          Reduce methane emissions – oil, gas and coal
        estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use   mining generates most methane, the second most
        stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in renewables’   potent GHG making up 40% of annual emissions.
        contribution. The reduction in natural gas demand is     Reduction in demand, gas leakages and improving
        around 3%, while global electricity demand looks set     gas recovery are some measures that can be
        down by a relatively modest 2% for the year.             adopted to achieve fugitive methane emission of

                                                                 40% of the current level in 2030 and 10% in 2050.

        7   The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions – Analysis - IEA   8   The 1.5-degree challenge | McKinsey

        6      TCExpresssion
   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11