Page 6 - Tcexpression2021 - Sept to Dec 2020

Amongst the conventional carbon-based fuels coal The global megatrends indicate wind and photovoltaic
demand peaked in 2014 and is declining by 40% from together will meet more than half of the world’s
2019 to 2050; oil demand is expected to peak in 2029 electricity demand by 2050. All countries would also
and gas demand in 2037, as shown in Figure 5. substantially increase the proportion of renewable
energy in their total energy use by 2050. Renewables
and batteries would form 80% of the market in new

power capacity. It is expected that oil demand would
continue to increase until 2035 and gradually decrease
until 2050 to match and stabilise the current levels.
Hydrogen economy would start gaining market share
slowly from 2030 onwards.

The Energy Transition Path

Fig. 5: Demand for Fossil fuels and peaking of demand There are three pillars to energy transition – generation,
2
storage and efficiency; the related technologies
The New Energy Scenario converge to provide an integrated solution. The road to
achieving climate change goals on the energy transition
Figure 6 shows the current mix of the global energy pathway essentially adopts the following tracks :
8
system and the contribution to CO2 emission from
each sector. Fossil fuels dominate the energy system, Electrification of transport – 15% of CO emissions
2
and these are also a significant contributor to carbon each year are from vehicle exhausts, and a
emissions. reduction will require a widespread shift to electric
vehicles

Electrification of buildings – 7% CO emissions come
2
from cooking and heating in buildings and 20%
from space and water heating, as shown in Figure 7.

Share of final -2 -2
energy 20
consumption for 20
space and water 36
heating, %

48
Hydrogen and 78
other renewables
61

Electricity and
district heating 32
Fig. 6: Overview of Global Energy Mix and CO emissions
7
2
Fossil fuels and
The International Energy Agency Assessment indicates bioenergy 1 2016 2030 2050
that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in Fig. 7: Energy for Buildings 6
2020, energy-related CO emissions by 7%, and energy
2
investment by 18%. The impacts vary by fuel. The Reduce methane emissions – oil, gas and coal
estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use mining generates most methane, the second most
stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in renewables’ potent GHG making up 40% of annual emissions.
contribution. The reduction in natural gas demand is Reduction in demand, gas leakages and improving
around 3%, while global electricity demand looks set gas recovery are some measures that can be
down by a relatively modest 2% for the year. adopted to achieve fugitive methane emission of

40% of the current level in 2030 and 10% in 2050.

7 The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions – Analysis - IEA 8 The 1.5-degree challenge | McKinsey

6 TCExpresssion